New Texas Poll Shows Tight Senate and Statewide Races as Early Voting Nears End

Texas voters are navigating a political landscape as early voting wraps up, with new polling and high-profile campaign advertisements highlighting tight margins across multiple statewide offices. In the race that has captured the most national and local attention, a survey dropped by the TSU Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center shows the U.S. Senate contest remains close, standing as the only major statewide race with a Democratic candidate in the lead, FOX 7 Austin reported.

The Senate Showdown and Turnout Battles

The high-stakes matchup features James Talarico facing off against Ken Paxton. According to data from the TSU poll, Talarico holds a lead over Paxton, a finding also reflected in an earlier October poll by Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) which surveyed 969 likely Texas voters between October 15 and 18 with a 3.9-percentage-point margin of error, as reported by USA Today. However, Talarico also sits underwater in favorability ratings, with 51% of surveyed voters expressing an unfavorable opinion of him. Meanwhile, Greg Groogan of FOX 26 noted a seven-point favorability gap working against the attorney general.

Republicans are banking heavily on a surge of traditional base turnout as early voting closes. Republicans are really going to be banking on having higher turnout than we’ve seen thus far during early voting among Republican voters today and tomorrow and especially on election day, said Mark Jones, a lead researcher for the poll.

That tightening race prompted Vice President J.D. Vance to travel to Texas on Thursday for a rally in Weatherford, just outside of Fort Worth. Taking aim at the Democratic challenger, Vance criticized national donor backing and past statements from Talarico’s record.

What am I to do but to talk about a man who was handpicked by Democrat donors in Washington D.C. Because they thought that he looked electable. And I wonder if any of those donors got their money back when all the videos came out of him talking about his favorite drag queens or how there are six genders or about how whiteness is a disease, said Vance.

The Talarico campaign has pushed back against these attacks with its own media blitz, including a newly released advertisement featuring former Texas Republican politicians declaring they will not cast their ballots for Ken Paxton.

Down-Ballot Chaos and Creative Campaign Ads

Beyond the marquee Senate battle, every statewide post on the Texas ballot is seeing intense competition. In the race for governor, Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa are locked in a statistical tie, with the TPOR poll placing them at 51% and 48% respectively.

New Texas Poll Shows Tight Senate and Statewide Races as Early Voting Nears End — Photo: aol.com

Candidates have turned to unconventional and cartoonish digital media to break through to voters. Gina Hinojosa’s campaign released an advertisement repurposing the classic Duck Hunt video game to criticize Governor Greg Abbott’s early support of flock cameras. On the Republican side, Railroad Commission candidate Bo French transformed himself into an animated Lego character to lampoon Democrats and appeal to younger male voters.

Steven Dial of FOX 4 pointed out the shifting momentum of the electorate. Democrats, they had a surge in the first week of early voting. Now we’re in the last few days. It is a matter of how big that gap or how close that gap will have tightened since the Democratic surge. So that’s what I’m going to be looking for, and we won’t know that until Monday, said Dial.

Economic Pressures and Down-Ballot Margins

Voters across the state point to economic concerns as their primary motivation at the ballot box. When asked by pollsters to rank the top issues elected officials should prioritize, 28% of Texas voters selected affordability and the cost of living, while 13% pointed to economic growth and job creation.

New poll shows tight races for Texas Senate and governor

Other down-ballot contests remain tight as early voting reaches its final hours ahead of the November 3 Election Day. In the comptroller’s race, former Travis County Judge Sarah Eckhardt is 6-points behind Republican Don Huffines in that survey. Analysts note that while Huffines benefits from high name recognition at 67% due to his active role in office issuing orders, Eckhardt is known by only 38% of respondents, hampered by limited campaign funds that restricted her outreach primarily to social media.

Other statewide positions show similar margins in the TPOR polling data, with Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick leading Vikki Goodwin 50% to 47%, Attorney General candidate Mayes Middleton leading Nathan Johnson 50% to 48%, and similar two-point leads held by Republican nominees in the agriculture, land, and railroad commissioner races.