Siena Research Institute poll finds Democrats ahead in seven states

As the final weekend of the 2026 cycle unfolds, a new Siena Research Institute poll reveals a shifting political map where Democratic candidates hold narrow to comfortable leads in several key states, though control of the U.S. Senate remains entirely up for grabs.

Released on November 1, 2026, the survey of likely voters across Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas underscores a volatile electorate just days before ballots are finalized. While some Republican strongholds show Democratic momentum, razor-thin margins in multiple states mean the ultimate balance of power in Washington is still anyone’s game.

Senate Grasp and Governor Grids Across the Map

“Our final U.S. Senate polls show Democrats with leads of 5 to 11 points in Kansas (5), Ohio (5), Maine (6), Texas (7), and Michigan (11),” said Don Levy, SRI’s Executive Director. Yet Levy cautioned that despite potential waves, the high volume of races sitting squarely inside the poll’s margin of error leaves a Senate majority open to either party.

The state-by-state breakdown highlights distinct political friction points:

Alaska: In the U.S. Senate race, Mary Peltola (D) leads Dan Sullivan (R) 48% to 46%. In the gubernatorial contest, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) leads Bernadette Wilson (R) 54% to 46%.
Iowa: The Senate race is virtually tied, with Josh Turek (D) at 48% and Ashley Hinson (R) at 47%. In the race for governor, Rob Sand (D) holds 51% against Zach Lahn’s (R) 43%.
Kansas: Adam Hamilton (D) registers 49% in the Senate contest, ahead of Roger Marshall (R) at 44% and David Graham (L) at 4%. The gubernatorial race sits at 48% for Cindy Holscher (D) and 47% for Ty Masterson (R).
Maine: Troy Jackson (D) leads Susan Collins (R) 51% to 45% for the Senate seat. For governor, Hannah Pingree (D) leads with 49%, followed by Bobby Charles (R) at 37% and Richard Bennett (I) at 8%.
Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) captures 53% against Mike Rogers (R) at 42% in the Senate race. Jocelyn Benson (D) leads John James (R) 52% to 39% in the gubernatorial matchup.
Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) leads Jon Husted (R) 49% to 44% for the Senate. Amy Acton (D) holds a 49% to 43% lead over Vivek Ramaswamy (R) for the governor’s office.
Texas: James Talarico (D) leads Ken Paxton (R) 50% to 43% in the Senate poll, while Gina Hinojosa (D) edges Greg Abbott (R) 48% to 47% in the race for governor.

Counting the Error Margins

The margin of sampling error varies by state among the likely electorate, factoring in design effects. It stands at plus or minus 5.0 points in Alaska, 4.7 points in Iowa, 4.4 points in Kansas, 4.7 points in Maine, 3.8 points in Michigan, 4.4 points in Ohio, and 3.4 points in Texas. Across all seven states combined, the margin rests at 1.6 points.

With poll numbers finalized, the focus shifts entirely to voter turnout and the actual counting process. As Levy noted, it is now time for all votes to be cast so that the counts can speak louder than the polls.