SpaceX Falcon 9 Upper Stage Projected to Hit Moon in August 2026

An abandoned SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage is on a collision course with the moon, with an impact projected for Wednesday, August 5, 2026. The spent rocket segment has been drifting in space for more than a year following a launch on January 15, 2025, that carried a pair of private lunar landers into space.

SpaceX Falcon 9 Upper Stage Headed for Lunar Impact

Space tracking expert Bill Gray predicts the unmanned rocket stage will strike the lunar surface at 5,400 mph (8,700 kph)—which is seven times the speed of sound—near Einstein Crater on the moon’s sunlit western limb. While the event was never intended by SpaceX, space experts noted that the crash could have been avoided if the upper stage had been nudged into an orbit around the sun. This marks the second known dead rocket to accidentally crash into the moon, following a Chinese rocket segment that created a pair of craters on the lunar far side in 2022.

Visibility and Scientific Observations

With the action unfolding during the early morning hours, eastern portions of the United States and Canada, as well as much of South America, are expected to have the best views from Earth.

According to experts, the initial impact flash will last less than a second and will probably be too dim to see. However, the smashup will pack the equivalent energy of three tons of TNT, carving out a crater and sending up a plume of dust and rubble. Los Alamos National Laboratory’s Benjamin Fernando, whose research explores the implications of such events, noted that low lunar gravity and a lack of wind will allow the ejected material to stretch for several miles into space and remain visible to telescopes for tens of minutes.

William Jo of the University of Texas at Austin emphasized that the ejected material stream is where the primary scientific value lies. Researchers plan to use the event to open up ejecta-plume science and calibrate models against a real human-made impact, contrasting hollow spacecraft bodies with natural impactors like asteroids and comets.

Implications for Future Space Missions and Orbits

Although scientists are not overly concerned about this specific piece of space junk, researchers point out that the incident highlights a growing threat as more items crowd Earth orbit. Retired astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell stated in an email that while the upcoming impact will not be a problem, long-term bases on the moon in the future would face issues if rocket stages are left in such chaotic orbits.

A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from pad 39A with a payload of a pair of lunar landers at the Kennedy Space Center in — Photo: AP News

To capture data on the collision, multiple spacecraft are positioning themselves for observation: – NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO): Goddard Space Flight Center project scientist Brent Garry explained that LRO will pass over the impact site about seven days before and seven days after the collision to gather before-and-after shots. – South Korea’s Danuri Lunar Orbiter: Fernando and his team reported that Danuri will pass within a mile or two of the SpaceX rocket just two minutes prior to impact to help gather imagery.

New research led by Fernando indicates that the maximum ballistic range of resolved particles could reach slightly under 1,000 kilometers, presenting a measurable hazard to future astronauts and infrastructure across portions of the lunar surface.

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