Why Alaska Ballot Counting Could Delay Control of the US Senate

Tracking the Frozen Tundra Vote Count That Could Decide the Senate

Control of the US Senate could hang in limbo for weeks as America’s election fate comes down to a slow-motion vote count across Alaska’s frozen tundra. With 600,000 voters scattered across a vast expanse of 586,000 square miles, Alaska’s unusual ballot-counting rules and a legal fight over the contest could delay the final result for days or even weeks.

Which party ultimately takes charge of the chamber could hinge significantly on this high-stakes showdown between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola. Because of the sheer logistical hurdles, the wait will test the patience of national observers.

“We will [not] know who is going to win Alaska [until] two weeks after Election Day,” predicted pollster Sean Trende, a polling analyst at RealClearPolitics and a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, during an Oct. 20 Election Watch briefing. “It will be a toss-up until the last ballots come in from the Alaskan bush by two-prop engine, and then put it through like five rounds of ranked-choice voting.”

Logistics of the Alaskan Bush and the Ranked-Choice Maze

Alaska relies heavily on small planes to connect rural communities and deliver ballots in a state that has 16 times as many aircraft as any other. Ballots postmarked by Election Day must be received within 10 days to count, while overseas ballots are given 15 days.

Senator dan sullivan a republican from alaska speaks during a senate environment and public

The state’s unique geography means supplies and votes arrive by boat, barge, ferry, or bush plane. As Glenn Wright, a political scientist at the University of Alaska Southeast, noted, a lot of supplies come in during the summer by boat, but ballots fly in and out.

Historical precedent shows just how grueling these waits can be. Back in 2012, former Alaska state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins triumphed in an exceptionally tight race, having to wait for foreign ballots arriving from locations as distant as Cambodia and Bahrain to definitively secure his victory. Beyond the mail delivery delays, Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system will slow the count further as election officials reexamine ballots to reallocate them when voters’ initial first-choice candidates do not make the cut.

Legal Challenges and Contested Ballots

The logistical challenges are only part of the story this year. US Dan Sullivan must contend with a ballot that also features a second candidate sharing his name: retired elementary school teacher Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.

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The Justice Department filed a lawsuit this month to invalidate the result if Sullivan loses, citing the appearance of Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. on the ballot as an attempt to siphon votes. Meanwhile, Democratic candidate Mary Peltola blasted a report that her campaign was behind Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.’s bid to get on the ballot. President Trump has demanded that Peltola drop out of the race following reports that her campaign engineered the ballot scheme.

For voters in remote corners, the effort to cast a ballot remains monumental. Highlighting the extreme measures voters take, the Bondys—at least one family in Alaska—embarked on a 225-mile, eight-hour dogsled journey just to submit their votes, an endeavor highlighted in the 2016 documentary OneVote. As urban and rural returns slowly trickle in, the nation watches the skies over Alaska to see which party ultimately claims the Senate.